NK NEWS BRIEF | September 25, 2013

The South Korean flag flies in Pyongyang, at the 2013 Asian Cup and Interclub Junior and Senior Weightlifting Championship | Photo: Yonhap

Administrative note: It was the Chuseok holiday in SK last week, so today’s news brief covers the last two weeks.

NK INTERNAL

• The second of PY’s two annual international trade fairs opened earlier this week. The Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair attracts companies from all over the world, including Russia, Cuba, Mongolia, Italy, Turkey, and Taiwan. In past years, the fair has been home to the launch of new tablet computers. Though nothing is set, a recent news bulletin suggests the Samjiyon tablet computer will be prominently featured.

• NK recently opened “Unha Scientists’ Street” for personnel who have contributed to its rocket and nuclear programs. Located on the outskirts of PY, the residential street contains 21 multi-story apartments and can house 1,000 families. Speaking on site, KJU said “our scientists are the first to enjoy the fruits of our strong country as they receive palace-like houses for free, all thanks to the benevolent affection of the Party.”

• In its efforts to enforce the recently revised “Ten Principles,” the NK regime has ordered a nationwide round of public criticism sessions. The sessions are supposed to continue until all wrongdoing, especially involving ‘defense,’ ‘fulfilling the last instructions of Kim Jong Il,’ ‘organizational life,’ and revolutionizing the family’ are exposed and recorded.

• According to the Rodong Sinmun, the Masikryeong ski resort is 85% completed. More than 100 days since KJU’s announcement of “Masikryeong Speed,” NK is ramping up its propaganda for the “world-class ski resort.” Recent photographs show little heavy equipment at the site, suggesting that construction is mostly driven by manual labor. KJU also recently visited the construction sites of the Mirim Riding Club and the Munsu Swimming Complex.

ECONOMY & FOOD SECURITY

• Last Monday morning the KIC reopened its doors. Operations continued over the Chuseok holiday but some businesses believe it will take several months before production levels are back to normal. Other details still being discussed between NK/SK include: whether previous NK employees will return or new employees will need to be trained; improved workers’ rights for SKorean personnel; updating communication infrastructure at the complex; and attracting foreign investment.

• The North East Asia Bank, reportedly one of Jang Sung Taek’s major business interests, is constructing a skyscraper HQ in PY.

• RFA: A brief glimpse into the luxury goods market in PY. While PY’s elite are snatching up 2,000 USD dresses and 10,000 USD Rolex watches, the sector’s opacity has allowed vendors to circumvent U.N. sanctions on luxury goods in NK.

• UN CERF will provide 1.2m USD in flood relief to NK. The funds will reportedly be directed toward the prevention and treatment of waterborne diseases (by UNICEF), food assistance (by WFP), and support of pregnant women among the flood victims (by UNFPA). WHO will focus on hygiene projects, including the provision of clean drinking water.

• According to data from the National Assembly Research Service, NK “possesses roughly 6.4 trillion USD in untapped mineral resources.” Practical and political difficulties have resulted in NK’s inability to take advantage of it’s large reserves of magnesite, graphite, and tungsten.

REFUGEES

• Daily NK: The Chinese authorities are constructing high levees and replacing barbed wire fencing along the China-NK border in its efforts to stop illegal cross-border transit and defection.

• Daily NK: People caught smuggling used items along the border with China are having to pay significantly higher bribes and are also suffering more beatings in detention. “If smugglers are detained by border guards they are supposed to pay 5,000 won now, and if they don’t have the money they get handed over to the NSA. If that happens they have to pay 5,000 to 10,000 Yuan, but poorer ones find it impossible to do that.”

• Due to the recent defection of a senior official’s daughter, PY has ordered its diplomats and state trading company officials stationed overseas to send their children back to the NK. Under the new order, only one child per household will be permitted to stay with an official who resides abroad. It has been revealed that the NKorean operation to prevent the defection of this official’s daughter may have also been the reason behind the swift repatriation of nine young NKorean refugees in Laos.

• Chun Wook-pyo, a SKorean fisherman who was taken to NK after his fishing boat was captured in the Yellow Sea four decades ago, has recently been reunited with his family. He escaped NK on August 11th and is the only member of his crew to have returned to SK.  

• SKorean soldiers shot and killed a man attempting to enter NK via the Imjin River on the west end of the DMZ.

HUMAN RIGHTS

• WashPo: New research suggests there may be 80,000 to 120,000 inmates in NK’s political prison camps, down from the previously accepted figure of 150,000 to 200,000 inmates. Researchers “attribute the drop-off in part to a spate of prisoner releases at one camp, but they also say it is because the camps, in general, are so reliably lethal, killing faster than the pace at which people arrive. Some analysts also say the number of arrivals at camps has tapered off.”

• NYT: The UN COI interim report on NK human rights reveals “shocking” evidence and “large-scale” patterns of abuse perpetrated by the NK regime. Chen Chuangdong, senior Chinese diplomat in Geneva: “Politicized accusations and pressures are not helpful to improving human rights in any country… On the contrary, they will only provoke confrontation and undermine the foundation and atmosphere for international human rights cooperation.”

• Blaming SK, NK postponed a family reunion program set to start last Wednesday at its Mount Geumgang resort. Despite NK’s accusations, SK has urged NK to allow the reunions to take place, albeit with a tone of frustration. Jang Jin-sung suggests PY’s change of heart may represent competition between military-first hawks and doves that prioritize economic development, and a reaction to a lack of aid provision ‘in return’ for the reunions.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS & SECURITY

• NYT: China has banned a long list of equipment and chemical substances that could be used to create chemical or biological weapons from being exported to NK. The export ban comes amid reports that NK is mastering domestic production of essential components for gas centrifuges.

• 38 North: New commercial satellite imagery indicates North Korea probably tested a long-range rocket engine between August 25 and 30, 2013 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

• New satellite imagery of steam emerging from a newly reconstructed nuclear reactor suggests NK is restarting its plutonium enrichment program at the Yongbyon complex. While the program’s resumption has not been confirmed, if the reactor has indeed been restarted, it would take only about a year for NK to begin to add to its plutonium weapons stockpile.

• SKorean media outlets, citing a Japanese newspaper, claimed that KJU may have ordered the executions of Hyon Song-wol and other singers to protect his wife’s reputation. Ri Sol Ju was a singer with the Unhasu Orchestra, the same organization that employed Hyon Song-wol, and there is suspicion that the affiliation might reveal insights into Sol Ju’s “provocative lifestyle.” KCNA responded by labeling the SKorean media reports “ludicrous statements of mental patients” that “insults our highest dignity.”

• A Russian fishing boat was fired upon, detained, boarded and then released in the East Sea by the KPA’s Coastal Security Bureau. The vessel was headed to Donghae, SK carrying a cargo of live crabs. A spokesman for the fishing company that owns the Altay said “North Korean coast guards grossly violated the international law on maritime traffic.”

• Hackers, allegedly from NK, have attacked 11 organizations based in SK. The malware campaign, dubbed “Kimsuky,” was designed to steal logins and passwords from SKorean universities that deal with international affairs and Korean unification. The organizations that were targeted, as well as the ISPs’ locations near the China-NK border, point to NK’s involvement.

ANALYSIS & OPINION

• New RAND report on NK collapse scenarios.

• Noland discusses several statistics from the Bank of Korea’s 2012 report on NKorea’s economic performance in 2012. He believes the greatest threat to the NKorean economy is a downturn in global metals and ore prices.

• Toloraya: “There is a lot of information—which I tend to believe—about exchanges between the two countries in this sensitive area, although I presume North Korea’s role in Syria’s chemical weapons program is exaggerated. What catches my attention is that this long-known fact is now extensively used to further demonize and isolate North Korea…We have enough trouble trying to entice North Korea into dialogue to secure its more responsible behavior. It is better not to complicate the process by something actually irrelevant either to Syria or the situation in Korea.”

• Klinger: “The regime is probably heartened by signs of a declining American willingness to intervene overseas even when confronted by evidence of the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Pyongyang will conclude that President Obama’s bold rhetoric, including that directed against North Korea, was unlikely to be backed with significant military action. The regime will incorporate this perceived American passivity into its decision-making in future confrontations with Washington and Seoul.”

• Foster-Carter: “The reasons Kaesong has no foreign investment are many and obvious. This is a Korean project, in every sense. In pure business terms, Koreans and only Koreans benefit from the zone’s three Ls: location, logistics and language. For South Korean SMEs, having your own people (sort of) as dirt cheap labor, on your doorstep, speaking your language, is a godsend. For non-Koreans, low wages and diligence are the only lures – but everything else screams no way.”

• Pinkston: “If North Korea is able to implement this [Byungjin Line] strategy successfully it will be very dangerous and destabilizing, both regionally and globally. The international community has an absolute obligation to do what it can to obstruct, deny and falsify the Byungjin Line strategy and do everything it can to ensure that it fails and that the North Koreans are unable to achieve their goals… We should help Pyongyang realize there are other strategies that would be better in helping them achieve their economic development goals.”

• Lankov: It appears that many in the North today are approximately where the average Soviet citizen was in the 1970s. They understand the imperfections of the system, but they still tend to think that such issues can be dealt with more or less within the existing framework. As the Soviet experience has demonstrated, such a state of mind is prone to sudden and dramatic changes, but it seems to remain dominant in the North.

MISC.

• NK played the SKorean national anthem and allowed the SK flag to be raised for the first time in its history during a recent international wrestling competition held in NK. 38 North provides a perspective on why NK is supporting sports development so enthusiastically.

• Last weekend KJU watched 3D movies at a new cinema in PY.

• NK state media reported that the NK men’s premier soccer league’s Torch Cup winners, the Sonbong Team, was stripped of its victory due to behavior that was “contrary to the sound sporting spirit and morality” which caused referees to “wrongly assess the ability of the team.” The details for the disqualification are murky, but while the Sonbong Team has been banned from international and domestic matches for the next six months, the match’s loser, the April 25 Team, has been crowned Torch Cup Champions.

• A UN survey of 41 NK residents revealed that a good education, protection from crime and violence, and an honest and responsive government are their top priorities.

• A Korean-American shares a touching anecdote from her brief interaction with a NKorean guard at the DMZ.

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